Gold has broken through the psychological barrier of $2,700 per ounce, earlier than initially anticipated. On the morning of October 18th, spot gold surged past the $2,700 per ounce mark right off the bat, a level that institutions had previously judged would only be challenged at the earliest by the beginning of next year. To date, gold's gains for the year have already exceeded 30%, making it the most profitable mainstream investment. The world's largest gold ETF, SPDR, has also set a new high in its holdings, with the latest figure reaching 884.59 metric tons.

SPDR has been in a continuous net accumulation state.

Tang Linmin, a senior researcher at China International Futures Co., Ltd., stated in an interview with journalists: The recent consecutive new highs in gold are mainly due to the market's stable expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and the impact of geopolitical factors. On the one hand, at the beginning of October, the U.S. September non-farm data was a "reverse cold" compared to the July data, causing a sharp decline in market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Not only did the previously hot expectation of a 50 basis point rate cut in November completely disappear, but the market even began to trade on the expectation of no rate cut in November. Recently, market expectations have gradually rebounded and formed a concentrated balance point at a 25 basis point rate cut in November, creating a good foundation for the rise in gold prices. On the other hand, the situation in the Middle East has continued to be tense, and while the possibility of Israel attacking Iranian oil facilities has decreased, the possibility of attacking other important targets in Iran has increased. Additionally, the situation between Israel and Lebanon is also heating up, stimulating the rise in gold prices. On the other hand, as the U.S. election approaches, the increase in uncertainty also benefits gold.

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Wu Aihua, an analyst at Everbright Futures, believes that the escalation of geopolitical conflicts and the European Central Bank's rate cut are the drivers behind today's gold hitting a historical high. The European Central Bank cut rates again overnight, lowering the deposit facility rate from 3.5% to 3.25%, and adjusting the main refinancing rate and the marginal lending rate from 3.65% and 3.9% to 3.4% and 3.65%, respectively. The latest data from CME's "FedWatch" shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in November is 86.2%, the probability of maintaining the current rate is 13.8%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut by December is 24.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 73.6%. In summary, the European Central Bank's rate cut has boosted bullish sentiment, and gold has set a new high, which may continue to be strong in the short term.

In addition to the boost from geopolitical situations, gold prices are also affected by the "Trump trade." Recently, the support rate for Republican presidential candidate Trump has risen significantly, and the market increasingly believes that Trump will win the U.S. election at the beginning of next month.

Kelvin Wong, a senior market analyst at OANDA Asia Pacific, said, "With uncertainty surrounding the U.S. election, investors are seeking gold as a safe-haven asset. Trump's presidency should support gold because he may exacerbate trade tensions and expand the budget deficit."

At the same time, the spot gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange also reached a record high of 620 yuan per gram.

SPDR's holdings have also set a new high, with the latest figure reaching 884.59 metric tons. Since October, except for the 4th, this ETF has not had any records of reducing its holdings.

"Seems like there is no bad news for gold now, any news has turned into good news. We have been worried that gold might回调 at high levels at any time, but from the current situation, this worry seems a bit redundant. In the short term, we should still go with the trend and continue to be bullish on gold. It's hard to say exactly where it will rise, but in the short term, we see it at $2,750 per ounce," said Lin Rong, a senior gold investor, to the reporter.

Another major bank has raised the price of accumulated gold.The significant surge in gold prices has also forced banks to raise the minimum deposit amount for gold accumulation accounts. "Starting from 9:30 AM on October 18, 2024, the minimum transaction amount for our bank's precious metal wallets and gold fixed investment business accumulation plans will be adjusted from 600 yuan to 700 yuan," Bank of Communications stated in its latest announcement.

The Bank of Communications also added: "We will continue to monitor the changes in the gold market and adjust the aforementioned minimum amount in a timely manner." Regarding the reason for this adjustment, the bank cited compliance with the relevant requirements of the People's Bank of China's "Interim Measures for the Management of Gold Accumulation Business" and stated that it was made to adapt to market changes, suggesting that this business may continue to be adjusted in the future.

Prior to this, on October 8, China Everbright Bank also issued a notice stating that, in accordance with the relevant regulatory provisions for gold accumulation business, to adapt to market changes, the bank would adjust its gold accumulation personal business. The regular investment for individual gold accumulation business at China Everbright Bank, which invests a fixed amount, will see the minimum purchase amount adjusted from 600 yuan to 700 yuan, while the additional amount will remain unchanged, still requiring multiples of 100 yuan. Existing fixed investment agreements signed before the adjustment will continue to be executed without impact, and new fixed investment agreements initiated after the adjustment must meet the bank's latest minimum requirements.

Within less than a month, other banks such as Bank of China, China Construction Bank, China Merchants Bank, China Zheshang Bank, Industrial Bank, and Agricultural Bank of China have also successively increased the minimum investment amount for gold accumulation accounts. Most have adjusted from 600 yuan/gram to 700 yuan/gram, while Bank of China, China Merchants Bank, and China Zheshang Bank have made relatively smaller adjustments, only increasing by 50 yuan to 650 yuan.

Agricultural Bank of China's approach is somewhat unique; on September 18, the bank announced that it would adjust the gold accumulation purchase starting point to a floating method based on gold prices, becoming the first bank of the year to link the starting point for gold accumulation purchases to the price of gold.

Institutions have also raised their outlook for gold. In a report released on Wednesday (October 9), UBS once again raised its gold price forecast, expecting the price to approach $2,800 by the end of 2024 and to climb to $3,000 in 2025. This increase reflects the widespread demand for gold in the market, with no significant signs of selling pressure.

UBS's optimistic outlook is supported by several macroeconomic factors. According to UBS, not only the Federal Reserve but also other central banks around the world are implementing monetary easing policies, which will create a favorable environment for gold purchases.

As gold enthusiasts, Goldman Sachs analysts predicted in early September that the price of gold would reach $2,700 per ounce by 2025. Just one month later, Goldman Sachs market strategists looked to even higher levels, forecasting that by 2025, the price of gold would climb to $2,900 per ounce.

Citi also expects the price of gold to reach $3,000 per ounce by mid-2025.